Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
